The proposal of carbon peak and carbon neutral targets put forward a huge challenge to the carbon emission reduction of the coal industry,and the coal industry will face all-round and in-depth adjustment. In order to ensure the energy security,it is very important to carry out stable and reliable carbon emission reduction in the coal industry in an orderly manner. Based on coal flow chart and energy consumption level of numerous coal consumers,the key areas of coal consumption were identified and the coal fundamental demand projection model was established based on the department scenario analysis method. And the fundamental coal requirements of different coal consumption sectors (electricity,chemical,steel,cement,heating) were systematically analyzed under the constraints of carbon neutrality and energy security and the reliability of the results by analogy was demonstrated. The results reveal that the coal production capacity demand in 2030,2040 and 2050 will be within the range of 2 120 million-2 870 million,1 400 million-2 090 million and 660 million-1 310 million tons of standard coal respectively;in 2060,the basic coal requirement will be within the range of 280 million-610 million tons of standard coal. the demand for coal production capacity will increase significantly to 730 million tons of standard coal in the intensive security situation that can guarantee supply of power,oil and gas. The power sector and coal chemical sector have a great impact on the demand for coal production capacity and there is high uncertainty.In 2060,the coal guarantee demand of the power sector and coal chemical sector will reach 210 million-590 million and 30 million-110 million tons of standard coal respectively.Energy efficiency improvement,process optimization and output adjustment in other industrial sectors will reduce their coal demand,and coal will be transformed from industrial fuel to carbon based raw materials.Compared with the coal development history of major international countries,China′s coal consumption will reach 290 million and 560 million-760 million tons of standard coal respectively in 2060. The reliability of prediction result is high. The sharp decline in total coal production,the optimization of production and consumption structures,the extension of coal industrial chains,and the development of low-carbon technologies will be the typical characteristics of the sustainable development of the coal industry under carbon neutrality goal. Facing the long-term development trend under the background of carbon neutralization,the coal industry should be optimized from production capacity evaluation,industrial chain innovation,energy conservation and emission reduction,power security guarantee and coal flexible supply.