Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is regarded as one of the most promising technology options for carbon dioxide capture,utilization and storage. However, there is no relevant study on dynamic cost prediction and systematic cost reduction trend analysis of CLCtechnology. A techno-economic analysis of CLC retrofitted coal-fired power plant (2×350 MW) was carried out, and it was found that thepower generation cost was 419.595 ￥ / MWh. The CO avoidance cost and CO capture cost were 96.142 ￥ / t and 85.847 ￥ / t, respectively. In order to predict the change trend of the cost of CLC power plant, a new learning rate model was proposed and a two-factor learning curve was obtained. Then the medium/ long term costs of CLC technology was predicted by considering three technology developmentscenarios: high speed, baseline and low speed. The results show that as the cumulative installed capacity of the power plant and the cumulative research and development investment are improved, the power generation costs of the power plant are gradually reduced. In thebenchmark scenario, the cost of power generation has dropped to 311.767 ￥ / MWh, with a drop of over 100 ￥ / MWh. Under the high-speed development scenario, the unit investment cost of CLC power plant will be reduced to 2 593.789 ￥ / kW, which is close to the levelof traditional coal-fired power plants.

叶骥(1990—),男,江西抚州人,工程师,硕士。E-mail:yeji@geg.com.cn

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YE Ji,CHEN Chuangting,HUANG Hui,et al.Cost analysis of chemical looping coal-fired power plant based on a doublefactors learning curve model[J].Clean Coal Technology,2024,30(8):82-89.