Abstract: In recent years, numerous developed countries have explicitly contemplated the establishment of carbon tariff mechanisms analogous to the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The formulation of such mechanisms is evolving into a globalized trend, which is projected to exert profound impacts on the international trade dynamics of China’s high-carbon-emission industries in the near future. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology is anticipated to witness substantial expansion in application scope under the carbon tariff regime. To assess the application value and potential of CCUS technology within the context of carbon tariff globalization, and to investigate its role in enabling China’s high-carbon-emission industries to navigate carbon tariff mechanisms, this study focuses on five industries prioritized for carbon tariff inclusion: cement, power generation, fertilizer, steel, and aluminum. Employing methodologies such as the ARIMA model and CCUS cost learning curves, and integrating industry-specific export datasets with technical suitability analyses, this research forecasts future export trajectories, CCUS deployment scales, and cost-decline trends for each industry. Through comparative analysis of divergent carbon tariff pricing scenarios (a low-pricing scenario of 65.3 CNY/ton CO₂ and a high-pricing scenario of 404.4 CNY/ton CO₂), the study quantifies the carbon tariff costs avoidable through CCUS adoption across industries. This paper establishes a dynamic linkage among industry export cyclical fluctuations, technological learning effects, and carbon tariff policies by constructing a dual-factor learning curve model, which comprehensively accounts for the influences of technological accumulation and research and development (R&D) investments on cost structures. Empirical results demonstrate that the cement, steel, and fertilizer industries possess substantial potential to mitigate carbon tariff impacts via CCUS implementation. Notably, the fertilizer industry, leveraging the low-cost capture advantages of high-concentration carbon emission sources, is projected to achieve 32%~64% savings in export costs under the high-pricing scenario during 2030–2032, emerging as the optimal short-term application domain. While the scale of CCUS deployment in the cement industry exceeds the embedded carbon emissions in export products, resource allocation optimization remains critical to preclude overcapacity risks. In the steel industry, constrained by the prevalent long-process steelmaking technology, CCUS coverage is limited to 8.8%, necessitating synergistic emission reduction strategies integrated with hydrogen-based steelmaking and other low-carbon technologies.