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    可持续航空燃料多维度协同发展现状与展望

    Current status and prospects of multi-dimensional synergistic development of sustainable aviation fuel

    • 摘要: 可持续航空燃料(Sustainable Aviation Fue,SAF)作为唯一可规模化应用的航空低碳替代燃料,其技术成熟度、经济性、政策适配性及环境影响成为产业落地的核心因素。笔者基于当前的发展现状及公开的行业数据,系统梳理了SAF的生产原料特性、生产技术路线原理与成熟度差异,全面解读全球政策框架(国际CORSIA机制、欧盟ReFuelEU、美国IRA法案、中国试点政策),剖析制约经济性的核心因素,并结合全生命周期评估(Well-to-Wake,WtW)量化其碳足迹(减排率50%~92%)。在技术路线方面,酯类和脂肪酸加氢工艺(HEFA)因技术成熟度高、原料来源相对稳定,目前占据全球SAF产量的80%左右,是短期内最可行的产业化路径;而费托合成(Fischer-Tropsch process,FT)与电转液(Power-to-Liquid,PtL)技术虽然当前成本较高、尚未实现大规模商业化应用,因其原料适应性强且减排潜力更大,被普遍视为中长期重点发展方向。政策层面,国际民航组织推出的CORSIA碳抵消与减排机制、欧盟ReFuelEU航空燃料法规、美国《通胀削减法案》(IRA)中的税收优惠条款以及中国的区域性试点政策,共同构成了当前全球主要的SAF激励体系,其中,欧盟的强制掺混指令和美国的税收抵免政策已在推动产能建设和下游应用中表现出显著效果。经济性分析显示,政策补贴可使HEFA路线成本降低30%~40%,预计2030年价格有望降至传统航煤的1.5倍以内。对于中国而言,亟需加强废弃油脂、生物质等可持续原料的供应链建设,建立基于碳定价、财政补贴和绿色金融的多层次激励机制,以系统推动SAF产业的健康、有序和规模化发展。

       

      Abstract: As the only scalable low-carbon alternative fuel for aviation, the technical maturity, economic viability, policy adaptability, and environmental impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) have become core factors for industrial implementation. Based on the current development status and publicly available industry data, the authors systematically sort out the characteristics of SAF feedstocks, the principles and maturity differences of production technology routes, comprehensively interpret the global policy framework (international CORSIA mechanism, EU ReFuelEU, US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and China’s pilot policies), analyze the core factors restricting economic viability, and quantify its carbon footprint (emission reduction rate of 50%–92%) combined with Well-to-Wake (WtW) life cycle assessment. In terms of technical routes, the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology, featuring high technical maturity and relatively stable feedstock supply, currently accounts for approximately 80% of the global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production volume, making it the most feasible industrialization pathway in the short term. In contrast, the Fischer-Tropsch process(FT) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technologies, despite their high current costs and lack of large-scale commercialization, are widely recognized as key development directions in the medium to long term due to their superior feedstock adaptability and greater emission reduction potential. At the policy level, the global primary SAF incentive framework is jointly constituted by the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation implemented by the European Union, the tax incentive provisions under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and regional pilot policies in China. Among these, the EU’s mandatory blending mandate and the U.S. tax credit policy have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in driving capacity construction and downstream application of SAF. Economic analysis indicates that policy subsidies can reduce the production cost of the HEFA route by 30%–40%, with its price projected to drop to within 1.5 times that of conventional jet fuel by 2030. For China, it is imperative to strengthen the supply chain construction of sustainable feedstocks such as waste oils and biomass, and establish a multi-tiered incentive mechanism based on carbon pricing, fiscal subsidies, and green finance, thereby systematically promoting the healthy, orderly, and large-scale development of the domestic SAF industry.

       

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