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    基于经济性分析的中国油气企业CCUS部署路径

    CCUS deployment pathways of China’s oil and gas enterprises based on economic analysis

    • 摘要: 为识别中国油气企业碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage,CCUS)规模化部署瓶颈、评估碳交易机制对项目经济性的改善潜力,剖析国际典型CCUS项目案例,归纳中国油气企业CCUS项目现状,构建生命周期评价(Life Cycle Assessment,LCA)−技术经济评价(Techno-Economic Assessment,TEA)−碳交易耦合模型,对百万吨级二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存–提高原油采收率技术(Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage-Enhanced Oil Recovery,CCUS-EOR)项目开展碳足迹核算与技术经济评价。结果表明:政策激励、商业模式、技术成熟度、源汇匹配是项目部署的关键影响因素;中国油气企业面临战略协同不足、碳源供给短缺、全流程成本高企、运营机制滞后及政策体系缺口五大瓶颈;百万吨级CCUS-EOR项目协同净现值约52.07亿元,经济性高度依赖驱油收益,碳资产收益贡献有限。据此提出“示范验证—区域融合—规模部署”3阶段规模化发展路径,明确加快区域性CO2管网建设和中国核证自愿减排量(Chinese Certified Emission Reduction,CCER)方法学落地是规模化发展的核心突破口,并从制度治理、技术研发、市场运营和国际合作4个维度给出配套支撑建议。

       

      Abstract: In order to identify the bottlenecks in the large-scale deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage(CCUS) by Chinese oil and gas enterprises and to evaluate the potential of carbon trading mechanism to improve project economics, typical international CCUS projects are analyzed, the current status of CCUS projects undertaken by Chinese oil and gas enterprises is summarized. Based on these findings, an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA)−techno-economic assessment (TEA)−carbon trading model is developed, and a carbon footprint accounting and techno-economic evaluation of a million-tonne CCUS-enhanced oil recovery(EOR) project are conducted. The results show that: policy incentives, business models, technological maturity, and source-sink matching are the key factors affecting project deployment; Chinese oil and gas enterprises face five major bottlenecks, namely, insufficient strategic synergy, carbon source supply shortage, high full-chain costs, lagging operational mechanisms, and policy system gaps; the synergistic net present value of the million-tonne CCUS-EOR project is approximately 5.207 billion yuan, indicating that its economic viability is highly dependent on oil recovery revenues, whereas the contribution of carbon asset returns is limited. Accordingly, a three-stage development pathway is proposed, comprising demonstration and validation, regional integration, and large-scale deployment in which accelerating regional CO2 pipeline network construction and the promulgating of China Certified Emission Reduction(CCER)are identified as the key breakthroughs for scale-up, and four supporting measures are proposed in the dimensions of institutional governance, technology research and development, market operation, and international cooperation.

       

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