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    激励政策对燃煤电厂CCUS项目投资决策的影响研究

    Research on the Impact of Incentive Policies on Investment

    • 摘要: 碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)被认为是中国实现碳中和目标的关键性技术,然而电价、碳价和技术创新等不确定造成企业投资意愿较低,亟需探索适合中国国情的激励性政策手段。针对旨在低碳转型的燃煤电厂,基于电价、碳价和技术等多重不确定因素,构建五种激励政策下CCUS项目投资实物期权模型,求解投资阈值、时机和补贴条件。最后,根据数值仿真结果,分析激励政策以及其组合形式对项目投资决策的影响。结果表明:(1)清洁电价补贴是相对有效的财政激励政策,基准水平补贴相对无激励场景提高了44%的投资期权价值。(2)非财政激励政策下CCUS项目投资临界碳价降至81-97元/吨,普遍低于财政激励政策。(3)政策组合的激励效果优于单一激励政策,不同补贴力度下的最优政策组合不同,需根据不同需求选择合适的政策组合。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is considered a key technology for China to achieve carbon neutrality goals. However, uncertainties such as electricity prices, carbon prices, and technological innovation have led to low investment willingness among enterprises, and there is an urgent need to explore incentive policy measures suitable for China's national conditions. For coal-fired power plants aimed at low-carbon transformation, based on multiple uncertain factors such as electricity price, carbon price, and technology, a real option model for CCUS project investment under five incentive policies is constructed to solve the investment threshold, timing, and subsidy conditions. Finally, based on the numerical simulation results, analyze the impact of incentive policies and their combination forms on project investment decisions. The results indicate that: (1) The clean electricity price subsidy is a relatively effective fiscal incentive policy, and the benchmark level subsidy increases the investment option value by 44% compared to the non incentive scenario. (2) The critical carbon price for non fiscal incentive policies is between 81-97 yuan/ton, which is generally lower than that of fiscal incentive policies. (3) The incentive effect of policy combination is better than that of a single incentive policy, but the optimal combination varies under different subsidy levels. When formulating policies, appropriate policy combination tools should be selected according to different scenarios.

       

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