Abstract:
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is considered a key technology for China to achieve carbon neutrality goals. However, uncertainties such as electricity prices, carbon prices, and technological innovation have led to low investment willingness among enterprises, and there is an urgent need to explore incentive policy measures suitable for China's national conditions. For coal-fired power plants aimed at low-carbon transformation, based on multiple uncertain factors such as electricity price, carbon price, and technology, a real option model for CCUS project investment under five incentive policies is constructed to solve the investment threshold, timing, and subsidy conditions. Finally, based on the numerical simulation results, analyze the impact of incentive policies and their combination forms on project investment decisions. The results indicate that: (1) The clean electricity price subsidy is a relatively effective fiscal incentive policy, and the benchmark level subsidy increases the investment option value by 44% compared to the non incentive scenario. (2) The critical carbon price for non fiscal incentive policies is between 81-97 yuan/ton, which is generally lower than that of fiscal incentive policies. (3) The incentive effect of policy combination is better than that of a single incentive policy, but the optimal combination varies under different subsidy levels. When formulating policies, appropriate policy combination tools should be selected according to different scenarios.