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    碳减排量认可度影响煤电CCUS技术经济可行性的沙盘推演

    Impact of carbon reduction volume recognition on the economic feasibility of coal power with CCUS technology: A simulation analysis

    • 摘要: 碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)技术是电力系统低碳转型必不可少的支撑技术之一,但目前中国尚未出台相关的政策机制来认定CCUS的碳减排量。这使得当前煤电CCUS仅可从有限的实物CO2市场中获得部分经济收益,而无法在碳排放市场上获得碳减排收益,抑制了煤电CCUS技术的投资积极性,不利于中国双碳目标的实现。本文搭建了颗粒度精细至机组级的中长期电源结构转型技术–经济–排放仿真模型,以年为时间步长,实现了CCUS煤电厂的发电量、排放量、捕集量、利用量、封存量、各类成本以及各类收益指标中长期时序轨迹的仿真推演,并据此量化分析了碳封存量与碳利用量的碳减排量认可度系数对煤电CCUS经济性的影响,实现了给定CCUS政策目标(如确保CCUS收支平衡)下的碳封存量和/或碳利用量的认可度系数计算方法。研究结果表明,对CCUS碳减排量给予认可将能够改善煤电CCUS的经济效益,本文提出的CCUS碳减排量认可度计算方法可根据政策目标、碳排放成本、CCUS成本等因素的变化而动态更新碳封存量和/或碳利用量的碳排放认可度标准,支撑相关政策措施的制定,助力煤电CCUS高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology is one of the indispensable supporting technologies for the low-carbon transformation of the power system, but China has not yet formulated relevant policy mechanisms to recognize the carbon reduction of CCUS. In this way, coal-fired CCUS power plants can currently only derive a portion of their economic advantages from the constrained physical CO2 market, which means they are unable to capitalize on carbon reduction benefits within China Emission Trading System. This scenario hampers the investment enthusiasm in coal power CCUS technology, thus impeding the achievement of China's dual-carbon objectives. The study presents a unit-level technical-economic-emission simulation model for power structure transition within medium-to-long-term frameworks, operating on an annual time step to simulate and analyze trajectories pertaining to power generation, carbon emissions, carbon capture, utilization, storage volumes, as well as associated costs and revenue metrics for coal-fired CCUS power plants. A quantitative analysis was conducted to quantify the impacts of the recognition coefficients of carbon storage volume and carbon utilization volume on the economic viability of coal-fired CCUS power plants. It further assesses the measurement methodology of recognition coefficients for carbon storage volume and/or carbon utilization volume based on specific CCUS policy objectives (e.g., maintaining CCUS cash flow equilibrium). The research results show that recognizing the carbon reduction volume of CCUS can improve its economic benefits. The carbon reduction recognition method proposed in this paper can dynamically update the recognition standards of carbon storage volume and/or carbon utilization volume based on policy objectives, carbon emission costs, and CCUS costs, thereby supporting the formulation of relevant policy and promoting the high-quality development of coal-fired CCUS power systems.

       

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