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    面向碳中和的CCUS集群布局和发展策略研究进展

    Research progress on CCUS cluster planning and development strategies for carbon neutrality

    • 摘要: CCUS是中国守牢能源安全底线、积极稳妥推进碳中和不可或缺的技术选择。然而,当前国内CCUS全流程技术的规模应用和集成程度仍处于滞后和无序规划状态,其减排贡献尚不足以支撑碳中和目标下的CCUS减排需求。为有效解决该问题,需对CCUS集群布局的关键问题和产业化发展策略进行全面深入的研究。基于此,通过“认识问题—分析问题—应对问题”的思路对CCUS技术发展现状、集群布局优化和产业化发展策略设计3个方面的国内外文献进行梳理归纳,结果发现:CCUS技术在发展水平、应用模式和技术成本等方面存在显著的异质性,经济成本是制约其发展的关键因素。源汇匹配模型缺乏高精度数据支撑和更全面的现实约束条件,也未考虑除CO2强化石油开采以外的碳利用方式,导致现有部署方案的可行性难以支撑CCUS集群布局的未来发展需要。同时,缺乏有效且可持续的激励政策和商业模式,进一步削弱了CCUS技术的经济可行性。建议未来研究应加强二氧化碳封存与利用能力的多维度评估研究,为CCUS集群布局提供更为科学和全面的数据支持。优化源汇匹配模型,明确与碳中和目标相一致的CCUS整体布局方案及多阶段发展任务。综合考虑CCUS的经济属性、激励政策的社会成本及其对环境−能源−经济造成的系统性影响,深化CCUS产业化和商业模式的设计与效果评估。

       

      Abstract: Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is an indispensable technological choice for China to safeguard its energy security and actively and prudently promote carbon neutrality. However, the current scale application and integration level of the full CCUS process technology in China are still lagging and in a state of disorderly planning, and its emission reduction contribution is insufficient to support the CCUS emission reduction demand under the carbon neutrality target. To effectively address this issue, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth study of the key issues in the layout of CCUS clusters and the development strategies for industrialization. Based on this, the domestic and international literatures are organized and summarized from the perspectives of "understanding the problem - analyzing the problem - responding to the problem" on the current state of CCUS technology development, cluster layout optimization, and the design of industrial development strategies. The results show that there is significant heterogeneity in the development level, application mode, and technical costs of CCUS, with economic costs being the primary constraint on their advancement. Current source-sink matching models lack high-precision data support and more comprehensive realistic constraints, and they do not adequately account for carbon utilization pathways beyond CO2-EOR. Consequently, existing deployment plans are difficult to support the future development needs of CCUS cluster layouts. Additionally, the absence of effective and sustainable incentive policies and commercial models further undermines the economic feasibility of CCUS technologies. Future research should focus on conducting multidimensional assessments of carbon storage and utilization capacities to provide more robust and comprehensive data support for CCUS cluster layouts. It is essential to optimize source-sink matching models and establish integrated CCUS layout plans and phased development tasks aligned with carbon neutrality goals. Moreover, studies should consider the economic characteristics of CCUS, the societal costs of policies, and their systemic impacts on the environment, energy, and economy, to enhance the design and evaluation of industrial and commercial models for CCUS development.

       

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