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    特高压快速发展背景下抽水蓄能与多电源结构的时序仿真模拟

    Numerical Simulation of Pumped Storage Hydropower with Multi-Power Source in the Power Grid

    • 摘要: 我国电力系统正处于转型发展的关键时期,特高压的快速发展和大规模新能源的接入对电网的安全稳定运行提出了更高的要求。本研究选取华中地区重要的特高压受端电网江西电网为代表,结合特高压输电通道送电需求以及各类清洁能源发电出力特性,通过8760小时逐时电力仿真模拟,合理配置火电、水电、风电、光伏、抽水蓄能,搭建多电源结构、电力系统转型情景相结合的量化组合模型。该组合模型根据《江西省“十四五”能源发展规划》、《江西省新型储能发展规划(2024-2030年)》等有关预测数据,搭建江西电网常规需求模型以及江西电网敏感需求模型两大类情景模型,对应16种转型场景模型,结合层次分析法-熵权法建立了经济、技术的多指标综合评价体系。此次研究结果表明:现阶段江西省的抽水蓄能电站无法满足2030年江西电网系统煤耗较大、新能源弃电率较高、电力系统运行经济性较差的特点;当抽水蓄能电站作为新增储能电源时,新能源弃电量、新型储能损失电量、火电的装机容量、煤耗随着新增抽水蓄能电站规模的增加而降低;即使抽水蓄能规模提升至5000 MW,2030的江西电网依旧存在60%的调峰幅度,并保持较高的新能源弃电量;研究分析发现,2030年江西电网常规情境下的抽水蓄能合理需求规模(经济规模)在10200 MW较为合理。同时结合江西未来可能出现的负荷增长、负荷率下调、特高压接入增加等4种敏感情况,2030年江西电网敏感情境下的抽水蓄能合理需求规模(经济规模)在7120 MW至11200 MW之间较为合理。此研究成果填补了新型电力系统中抽水蓄能电站开发、火电有序退役、风光资源的高效整合多维度的理论支撑和科学研究。

       

      Abstract: China's power system is currently at a crucial stage of transformation and development. The rapid expansion of ultra-high voltage (UHV) networks and the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources impose stringent demands on the secure and stable operation of the power grid. This study focuses on the Jiangxi power grid, a significant UHV receiving-end grid in Central China. By considering the power transmission requirements of UHV transmission channels and the generation characteristics of various clean energy sources, an 8760-hour hourly power simulation was conducted. This simulation rationally allocated thermal power, hydro power, wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and pumped storage hydropower (PSH), thereby establishing a quantitative combination model that integrates a multi-power source structure with power system transformation scenarios. Based on the "14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development in Jiangxi Province" and forecast data such as the "2022-2030 Provincial (District, Municipal) Renewable Energy Non-Hydropower Consumption Responsibility Weight Expected Target Recommendations," this combination model constructs both a conventional demand model and a sensitive demand model for the Jiangxi power grid, corresponding to 16 transformation scenario models. Employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process-Entropy Weight Method, a comprehensive evaluation system encompassing economic and technical indicators was established. The study's findings indicate that the current pumped storage power stations in Jiangxi Province are inadequate to meet the system's characteristics of high coal consumption, high curtailment rates of renewable energy, and poor operational economy by 2030. When PSH serve as additional energy storage sources, the amount of curtailed renewable energy, new energy storage losses, thermal power installed capacity, and coal consumption decrease as the scale of PSH increases. Even with a pumped storage capacity increased to 5000 MW, the Jiangxi power grid in 2030 still faces a 60% peak regulation range and maintains a high level of renewable energy curtailment. The study reveals that the reasonable demand scale (economic scale) for pumped storage under the conventional scenario of Jiangxi's power grid in 2030 is approximately 10200 MW. Additionally, considering potential future scenarios of load growth, load rate reduction, and increased UHV access in Jiangxi, the reasonable demand scale (economic scale) for pumped storage under the sensitive scenario of Jiangxi's power grid in 2030 ranges from 7120 MW to 11200 MW. These research outcomes provide theoretical support and scientific research for the development of PSH, the orderly retirement of thermal power, and the efficient integration of wind and solar resources in the new power system.

       

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