高级检索

    新质生产力背景下抽水蓄能提升系统保供能力的建模分析

    Numerical simulation of pumped storage hydropower in high percent hydropower grid system

    • 摘要: 以遭受限电威胁且高水电占比的四川电网为代表,通过8760 h逐时电力仿真模拟,对抽水蓄能在四川电网中参与系统保供,与火电、新能源在电源结构、电力系统转型方案相结合的量化组合模型进行分析。首先,根据《四川省电源电网发展规划(2022—2025 年)》、《2022—2030年各省(区、市)可再生能源电力非水电消纳责任权重预期目标建议》和国家能源局发布的《抽水蓄能中长期发展规划(2021—2035年)》预测数据,搭建模型制定四川电网2030年和2035年2大类情景,对应16种多电源结构转型场景模型,结合层次分析法–熵权法建立了系统供电可靠性、低碳性、充裕性的综合评价指标体系。此次研究结果表明:抽水蓄能在保障系统供电水平的综合效益高于同等水平下的气电机组,能够对新能源消纳水平的促进和碳排放水平的降低起到积极作用。由于四川电网是以水电为主的电网,比较分析了平水年和枯水年时期不同规模的抽水蓄能对于火电和新能源在发电量、利用小时数、碳排放量、调峰电力的影响。最后分析结果表明:2030年四川电网配置600万kW抽水蓄能和2035年四川电网配置1200万kW抽水蓄能可以有效提升系统保供能力,降低火电在电网中的碳排放和促进新能源在电网中的消纳作用,确定了该规模下的抽水蓄能对于改善系统供电可靠性、低碳性、充裕性的显著优势。

       

      Abstract: The Sichuan power grid, which experienced a power crunch in 2022, was the focus of the research. By employing an 8760-hour power simulation, it analyzed the integration of Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) into the system to ensure the reliability and stability of the electricity supply. The quantitative combination model incorporated PSH, thermal power, wind power, and solar power in the Sichuan power grid. Using predicted data from the "Sichuan Province Power Grid Development Plan (2022–2025)", the "Expected Targets and Recommendations for the Responsibility Weighting of Non-Hydro Power Consumption of Renewable Electricity by Provinces (Regions and Municipalities) (2022–2030)", "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Pumped Storage Hydropower (2021–2035)" issued by the National Energy Administration, a numerical simulation was developed to formulate two major types of scenarios for the Sichuan Power Grid in 2030 and 2035, corresponding to 16 multi-power transforming scenarios. The comprehensive evaluation index system for power supply reliability and stability was assessed for the Sichuan power grid. The results demonstrated that the equivalent capacities of PSH outperformed gas-fired power plants in terms of power supply reliability and stability. In conclusion, configuring 6 GW of PSH in the Sichuan power grid by 2030 and 12 GW by 2035 could effectively enhance the system's power supply reliability and stability.Key words: new-quality productive forces; Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH); thermal power; renewable energy; time-series simulation

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回